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You're certainly right that indexes like these don't benefit from the bubble!

But it's not the case that they "did very poorly". Forgive the UK sources, but compare HMWO (an MSCI World ETF) [1] and PSRW (a RAFI All World 3000 ETF) [2]. These are world indexes, but that's 70% US or something. For the last five years:

  Date         HMWO   PSRW
  07/24-07/25  15.77  13.49
  07/23-07/24  18.46  14.35
  07/22-07/23  13.86  13.87
  07/21-07/22  -9.06  -4.93
  07/20-07/21  35.31  38.57
It's a small difference. For a set-and-forget investment that insulates you from an AI bubble collapse, it's absolutely fine.

Funnily enough, if you go further back, the RAFI index is actually further behind. No idea what that's about.

[1] https://www.fundslibrary.co.uk/FundsLibrary.DataRetrieval/Do...

[2] https://www.fundslibrary.co.uk/FundsLibrary.DataRetrieval/Do...





HMWO is 5.5% NVDA. It's not significantly different from the S&P 500. Any world cap-weighted index is going to have the same issue.

Exactly, yes. HMWO is the "normal" cap-weighted fund here, PSRW is the RAFI fund.



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