It does look like lower performance than a first-time driving student.
I really couldn't justify 1000:1 with such "sparse" data, but I do get the idea that these are some non-linear probabilities of making it back in one piece.
It seems like it could easily be 1,000,000:1 and the data would look no different at this point.
Statistically yes, but look at the actual facts of the case.
A large object on the road, not moving, perfect visibility. And the Tesla drives straight into it.
Not hitting static objects in perfect visibility is pretty much baseline requirement #1 of self driving. And Tesla fails to meet even this.